Loading ...Fearless Forecast: The Top and Bottom Holiday Films of 2005
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Loading ...By Ben Heckendorn
Yo yo Ben H here! A little known fact is that when I’m making building videogame crap or drinking MGD I am a soothsayer! That is, I can predict the future! Amazing, I know. So anyway, since this is a movie site I figured to use my powers to predict “The Top and Bottom Holiday Films of 2005!”
Being an uber-capitalist I don’t mean the best or worst. Nope, just which ones make the big bucks and which STEALTHFULLY flop away into the bargain bin. Why do this, you ask? Why not! When all’s said and done we can look back on this and laugh. Overall I think this holiday season will be pretty big, much better than summer. Of course pundits will attribute this to the now-lower gas prices but it’s the MOVIES themselves that make the difference. (I can see the headlines now: “People brave deadly BIRD FLU to see Harry Potter” What BS) Anyway, let’s get started, going in sort-of chronological order.
November 4th
CHICKEN LITTLE
AKA “Let’s throw away all our 2D animation stuff and do it all on computer now!” Disney Feature Animation Studios, Directed by the guy who did “Emperor’s New Groove” and starring the usual cast of TV and independent film actors.
WILL MAKE: $175 million US
Rating: SUCCESS
“Chicken Little” comes out this Friday and it’ll probably do pretty well. Not on its merits, mind you - it’s got to be the ugliest looking CGI film ever, and that’s a big feat considering I think most CGI films are already ugly. And not from the huge advertising budget either.
Nope, “Chicken Little” will be this year’s “JUMANJI”. (The funnest word to say in all history) See, I worked in a theatre when “JUMANJI” came out and it didn’t make money cause people wanted to see it. It made money because “Toy Story” was always sold out and people went to the next family-friendly poster they saw - “JUMANJI” - the “overflow film”.
Of course there’s no “Toy Story” this year, instead we have the TRUE 800-lb gorilla of the season “Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire” That movie will sell out faster than a lifeboat store on the “Titanic”. Everyone who arrives too late and gets turned away will go see “Chicken Little”. Guaranteed. Eisner probably knows this, but will say the film is a success because the studio “went 3D, and that’s what the people wanted”.
November 9th
Get Rich or Die Tryin’
AKA “Hey that 8-Mile movie made a bunch of money!”
Starring: Some rapper whose name involves money, ice or the letter T. (shrug)
WILL MAKE: $30-$50 million US
Rating: Bleh
Naturally they’re going for the “8 Mile” ripoff with this one, but I don’t think anyone will really care. I’m not a hip-hop expert but I’m pretty sure M&M (screw his real name, or how to spell the fake one) is, and was, a LOT more popular than this 50 cent piece dude. But of course they probably got this sucka in the can for 20 mill (or 20,000 G’s) so they’re pretty much assured of not going broke. Or dyin’ tryin’.
November 11th
Zathura
AKA “JUMANJI 2 – Electric Boogaloo”
Starring: Some kids, outer space, robots. Released by Sony “We’re reverting to the kind of shit we released in the early 90’s” Pictures (Columbia)
WILL MAKE: $35-$50 million US
Rating: BOMB (based off expense of film)
Who gives a fuck about this movie? It’s been 10 years since JUMANJI, and they’re trying to say this is part of the (bleh) “franchise” I hate movie franchises. Or the term at least. Movies are supposed to be about art. Franchises are about selling shitty hamburgers.
Anyway, same plot as Jumanji but the “spillovers” from Harry Potter and the Cash Cow of Doom will go to “Chicken Little” instead since its ad budget appears to be 100 times that of Zathura. Plus it’s easier for kids to say “Chick N Lit Tul” than this phonetic abortion.
Who the hell calls a movie “Zathura”? It’s hard to say, isn’t fun to say, and sounds like a character from Olivia Newton John’s “Xanadu” or “Legend”. “JUMANJI”, while a bullshit word, was at least easy to remember and of course, really fun to say. Try yelling out “JUMANJI!” at the top of your lungs some time, you’ll have a blast.
The title IS important, Hollywood. You’d be surprised how many people pick which movie they’ll see by just going to the theatre and looking at the posters. Do some research on that once, and you’ll realize people probably think the following when they see some titles:
“The Constant Gardener” – a Martha Stewart movie?
“Jarhead” – somebody who cans a lot of fruit?
“Aeon Flux” – a paste that helps you solder?
November 18th
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
AKA “All your money are belong to us”
Starring: The Harry Potter gang. Released by Warner Brothers.
WILL MAKE: $350-$400 million US
Rating: UBER-SMASH HIT of 2005
Harry Potter 4 is going to make so much money it’s not even funny. Utter shit-loads. Titanic-loads. Something to think about is “Goblet of Fire” was the book released in 2000, when the Potter phenomenon really took off, so it’s the one everyone remembers. (And supposedly the best, but I wouldn’t know, shucks, I don’t do much book readin’).
I don’t know what else to really say. It’ll be the biggest hit of the year, trouncing Star Wars, and probably one of the biggest hits of all time. The kids will all flock to it, and the adult readers, who would flock to it anyway, will flock even faster since it’s rated PG-13. Oh I know what to say while I’m hear. I am quite sick of would-be pedophiles who go on and on about how hot Emma Waston will someday be. Ug! I guess with the Olsen Skanks turning 18 somebody had to be the “next big thing” Just watch, 5 years from now we’ll see Emma Waston in “Aeon Flux 2” or “20 Things I Hate About You” Then her career will promptly vanish and she’ll be reduced to Sci-Fi channel original pictures or an extra on Stargate: Atlantis SVU.
November 18th
Walk The Line
AKA “That Ray movie was well-received, let’s find another dead singer to exploit”
Starring: Joaquin Phoenix, Reese Witherspoon and some other people. Released by 20th Century Fox
WILL MAKE: $40-$60 million cash US
Rating: Eh.
Actresses have it easy – when they want an Oscar all they have to die is take off their shirt. Actors on the other hand must always play dead famous people, preferably ones with mental defects. Thus Joaquin Phoenix pines for an Oscar with “Walk The Line”, a movie about the life of Johnny Cash.
I dunno – I’m not to hot on obvious Oscar-grab movies. I like Cash and all but I don’t give a rat’s ass about this movie. Now a “How Cameron Met Paxton” movie – THAT I’d see.
November 23rd
Rent
AKA “Hey we’re only 3 years behind Chicago!”
Starring: A bunch of people who sing I guess. Directed by… Chris Columbus? Released by Sony “Bombs R Us” Pictures
WILL MAKE: $20-$40 million cash US
Rating: Cheap bomb (dirty bomb?)
I actually like musicals a lot but I don’t care about this thing. My feeling is nobody else will too, or they’ll go see “The Producers” instead. There’s no star power as with “Chicago” and I have a feeling it just won’t be as good, so no word of mouth. Damn sell your Sony stock NOW!
December 2nd
Aeon Flux
AKA Zit on the ass of Cameron’s upcoming Battle Angel Alita
Starring: Charlize Theron. Directed by… oh probably some music video director. Released by (please don’t be Sony…) THANK GOD! Paramount Pictures.
WILL MAKE: $10-$20 million cash US
Rating: NUCLEAR BOMB
I’ll be upfront you with – I am going to this movie. Jones and I have already decided this will be the first official “in theatre” Shitty Movie Night. Plus he’s a Charlize fan and apparently has actually SEEN the old Aeon Flux show on MTV. But on to why they made this…
How much crack do these execs smoke? I mean really? “Let’s make an expensive sci-fi movie based off a 10 year old MTV show that ran for 1 season” Oh fucking BRILLIANT. Even the uber-popular “Beavis and Butthead” show didn’t translate into big box office bucks, and they actually released the film close enough to the show to be relevant.
Of course what do I know? Maybe it’s policy to make X number of bombs per year to wipe out the profits from successful films. I mean, as long as everyone gets paid on a film who cares if it makes money? Too bad real life isn’t like that. “I will spend 100 grand on a house and sell it for 35 grand, and that’s FINE!” Sheesh.
Final thing – Charlize Theron. OK she won her Oscar using the OTHER method for actresses (extreme weight change) but still. Why does every actress immediately make SHIT after winning an Oscar? Oh right, the money. A short list to make you cry:
Mira Sorvino – “Mighty Aphrodite”, then “Replacement Killers” and “MIMIC”
Angelina Jolie – “Girl, Interrupted”, then “TOMB RAIDER”
Halle Berry – “Monster’s Ball”, then, ug, “CATWOMAN”.
Nicole Kidman – “The Hours”, then THE STEPFORD FUCKING WIVES
And I’m sure Hillary Swank is reading the script for “Pong: The Movie” as we speak.
December 9th
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
(Longest title since “Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl”)
Starring: A bunch of kids, a lion, a witch and get this – a wardrobe!. Directed by Andrew Adamson. Released by Disney.
WILL MAKE: $150-$200 million US (possibly even more)
Rating: HIT
I think I actually read this book like a zillion years ago. I can’t remember what happened, but it seems like it was a fairly popular tale. Kind of for kids I think. Anyway this is Disney’s knee-jerk slap themselves in the face reaction for passing on “Lord of the Rings” and I think they’ll do OK with it. By the time it comes out everyone will have already seen “Harry Potter” 16 times so it’ll have room to breathe.
Supposedly this movie has a Christian undercurrent to it – I can’t recall. That won’t hurt the box office, if anything it’ll help. I mean, “Passion of the Christ” anyone? I think people are possibly getting a little sick of the agnostic or evolutionist approach in most films, or the fact if God is used at all it’s just in passing or from the “religious nut” character. I mean, I actually think a “Ten Commandments” remake would be a huge, huge hit. Maybe I’m wrong. But I bet “Chronicles” proves me right. To paraphrase Wesley Snipes: “Always bet on God!”
December 14th
King Kong
Starring: Naomi “I was in Tank Girl” Watts, Jack Black and a big CGI ape. Directed by Peter Jackson. Released by Universal.
WILL MAKE: $150-$200 million US (tops)
Rating: DISAPPOINTMENT
Mark my words now – this will be the sure-fire “big disappointment” of the season. Sure it’ll make money, but with a cost of over $200 million, not counting advertising, it’ll fall short of what they want. I’m sure it’ll be interesting, have good effects, blah blah blah, but I just don’t think people will care. Really all it has going for it is “from the director of Lord of the Rings”.
In 1933 King Kong was something filmgoers had never seen before. The 1976 remake was pretty cheesy but it did OK, despite the flood of “disaster” films it was released during. Now we have Kong 2005.
The problem here is we’ve all seen “Jurassic Park”, which set the standard for all the “run away from the monster” movies that have come since. And these movies are always the same: A monster is on the loose/attacks. People are not directly killed by it, or it is shown off-camera. Lots of cars are thrown around. The monster attacks or is seen near well-known landmarks. Most of the action involves people “jumping out of the way” of things. (falling cars, girders, electrical lines) Again nobody thinks to, oh I don’t know, SHOOT the bad creatures.
This same kind of conflict-less bland crap is evident in the Kong 2005 trailer. Actually, half that trailer is about them finding Naomi Watts and her walking onto a ship, so we may be in more trouble than we think (or the effects weren’t ready, a more likely scenario) The “people making a movie within a movie” thing never works, it always comes off as phony and pretentious. (Plus making movies is actually extremely boring and monotonous) It only really worked in “Ed Wood” since that’s what the movie was about rather than just a scene or two.
Maybe I’ll be wrong and this film will rock. But I’m not a Peter Jackson fanboy so I won’t believe it til I see it. I just have this feeling this movie is just going to be seen as another “monster on the loose” flick by most people. I mean, in 1998, even with the amazing duo of Bill Paxton and Charlize Theron “Mighty Joe Young” didn’t do squat. (Paxton: “Oh shit! A giant monkey! Game over man!”) We’ll see if people go ape-shit for this or not.
December 14th
Diary of a Japanese Hooker
Starring: A bunch of people. Directed by Rob Marshall. Released by Dreamworks.
WILL MAKE: $100-$150 million US
Rating: SUCCESS
I didn’t read this book of course. Seems like Spielberg was gonna do this flick for the longest time (just like Indy 4) but now Rob “Chicago” Marshall is taking a whack at it. He’ll probably whack it out of the park.
I think it’ll make money because 1) it was a book 2) it’ll have that “Dances with Wolves” meets “Bridges of Madison County” meets “The Last Samurai” thing going 3) it seems like an “important” film that people will check out. The older crowd will see it, and they’re the SECRET WEAPON of smash hits (cough cough “Titanic”).
December 16th
The Producers
Starring: Nathan Lane, Matthew Broderick, the Kill Bill chick. Directed by… beats me… Not Mel Brooks, I know that. Released by Universal.
WILL MAKE: $50-$100 million US
Rating: Eh.
I haven’t seen the original movie or the new stage play. But it’s cool Mel Brooks is still kicking out stuff. Anyway, what to say about this… It won’t be a “Chicago” sized hit, but maybe close. Will knock out Rent with the electric bill to spare. Again the “play within a play within a movie” thing is always kind of confusing. Sure it works on Broadway but that’s Broadway, we’re talking about a theatrical release here. It’ll do alright, but it’s certainly not the next “Sound of Music”.
December 23rd
Munich
Starring: Eric Bana and the New Bond. Directed by Steven “The Kids Can Never Die!” Spielberg. Released by Universal.
WILL MAKE: $100-$150 million US
Rating: SUCCESS
Here’s the controversial movie of the year! (or so they say) Apparently this is about some assassins and the 1972 Olympics. I don’t know much more than that, but it involves 1) terrorism 2) past events 3) Steven Spielberg so it’s guaranteed to be a hit. People will go just to see it as it’ll likely raise a lot of questions and debate. Let’s just hope it has more balls than “War of the Worlds” and its “resurrected from the dead” Tom Cruise’s son.
Well there you have it. My (sort of) complete list of box office hits and misses. This list is surely so accurate you can buy or sell stock of studios right now! Your profit margins will be amazing! Have fun and see you at the movies!
