Loading ...Dale’s Guide to the Oscars
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Loading ...By Dale Nauertz
I can honestly say that I cared more about the Olympics curling competition than I do about the impending Academy Awards (though, to be fair, I have spent the past couple weeks mesmerized by the sport of curling, my latest discovery/addiction). Even if I wasn’t a recent curling convert, this statement would likely be true. I’ve seen four out of five of the year’s nominees for Best Picture (for me, that’s a pretty high percentage) but there is only one of them that I think deserves to be there (that would be “Munich”). Otherwise, this year’s Oscars are a fairly dull affair. The Academy isn’t trying to show that it’s hip (as it did when it nominated the “Lord of the Rings” films) and it isn’t trying to be edgy (except when nominating “Munich”). Nope, this year it’s pretty much business as usual. There are the standard crop of bio-pics (“Capote”, “Walk the Line”) and films about Themes with a capital “T” (homosexuality, terrorism, racism). A new crop of usual suspects have emerged over the past couple of years, and they’re all in their usual spots, vying for attention (Frances McDormand, Charlize Theron, Spielberg, Ang Lee). None of the films nominated are bad (none that I’ve seen) and they all try, admirably, to tackle large themes and explore the canvas of life and human nature. It’s just that few of them illustrate what makes the craft of filmmaking such a magical one. “Crash” lacks the punch and emotional resonance of a film like “Million Dollar Baby”. “Good Night and Good Luck” is fine but dry. “Capote” is a great actor’s vehicle but little more. And other, better, passionate films (“The New World”, “Match Point”, “King Kong”) have been largely ignored for bloodless films that profess to be about something Important. So, in typical, Oscar fashion, the Academy hasn’t truly selected the five best films of the year but has, instead, gone after the five most Important films of the year.
But, again, none of this really comes as a shock. The Academy screws it up about ninety percent of the time. They always have. It’s a tradition. So, instead, let’s concentrate on what I think will win. I’m not going to bother with Sound Mixing and all the awards that are, basically, filler to the audience watching at home. I haven’t seen any of the animated shorts or the live action shorts or, hell, even the documentary features, so I’m gonna skip them. (Nobody but the ones nominated really care anyway.) Before I get started, however, I think you should all know that I never do very well selecting the winners at Oscar parties on those little ballots you always get with Entertainment Weekly (though I will be using that handy, little tool to help make my choices). So if you lose a bunch of money playing my choices, don’t come bitching to me: I’ve warned you.
Best Animated Feature
“Howl’s Moving Castle”
“Tim Burton’s Corpse Bride” (that’s a mean way to talk about Helena Bonham Carter)
“Wallace and Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit”
The newest category in the show, and a great addition, I must say. Unfortunately, I’ve only seen one of the nominees in this category. But it’s the one that’s going to win. “Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit” was less entertaining than the Wallace and Gromit shorts (perhaps an hour and a half of these two is just overkill) but since Wallace and Gromit win every time they’re nominated for Best Animated Short, they’re probably a dead lock to bring home the gold here too. Besides, even without seeing the other nominees, I can honestly say that it’s probably the best of the nominated films.
Best Documentary (I know I said I wasn’t going to bother with it…I changed my mind, screw off)
“Darwin’s Nightmare”
“Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room”
“March of the Penguins”
“Murderball”
“Street Fight”
I haven’t seen any of them (and I haven’t even heard of “Street Fight”), but there are really only two nominees here to worry about: “March of the Penguins” and “Enron”. Both of these movies have been on a ton of critics’ top ten lists (and, yes, I do plan on making one of those eventually) and while “Murderball” got a fair share of press, I still remember that the promo show for it aired on MTV and was hosted by Johnny Knoxville. That’s not the sort of movie that wins an Oscar. My pick is “Enron”. We’ve been hearing about the penguin movie all year, but the documentary folks will want to fool everyone into thinking they’ve got a bit more class than that.
Note: This is the first year that I’d actually heard about most of the documentary nominees before reading their names on the ballot. That alone illustrates the renaissance that documentary films are having in our culture. I still haven’t seen them (and neither have you, more likely than not) but I’ve actually heard about most of them!
Best Visual Effects
“The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe”
“King Kong”
“War of the Worlds”
I still don’t understand why “Revenge of the Sith” wasn’t nominated. It at least had better effects than “War of the Worlds”. But the eight hundred pound gorilla in this category is, well, the eight hundred pound gorilla. “Kong” was simply eye-popping, whereas the others were just quite good. For creating a special effect that made you care enough to cry, “Kong” deserves the gold. (And a few other awards as well…though you may notice that it’s absent from the Best Editing category with good reason.)
Best Adapted Screenplay
“Brokeback Mountain” (Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana)
“Capote” (Dan Futterman)
“The Constant Gardener” (Jeffrey Caine)
“A History of Violence” (John Olson)
“Munich” (Tony Kushner and Eric Roth)
I haven’t seen “Brokeback” or “A History of Violence”, so I can only evaluate the other three, but that doesn’t matter because they never ask me my opinion on these things anyway. Plus, “Munich” is gonna get it. Why? Because it won’t win Best Picture and the Academy will want to give it one or two awards, so winning this award will be something of a consolation prize. If it doesn’t go to “Munich”, then I have no doubt that the award will go to “Brokeback” which is cool, because Larry McMurtry rocks!
Best Original Screenplay
“Crash” (Paul Haggis, Bobby Moresco)
“Good Night and Good Luck” (George Clooney and Grant Heslov)
“Match Point” (Woody Allen)
“The Squid and the Whale” (Noah Baumbach)
“Syriana” (Stephen Gaghan)
The best screenplay in this category is “The Squid and the Whale”, but “Good Night and Good Luck” is going to win. Why? Again, “Good Night” isn’t going to get Best Picture, so here is its consolation prize.
And now, the really big guns, the ones they won’t get to until well after everyone has stopped caring:
Best Supporting Actor
George Clooney (Syriana)
Matt Dillon (Crash)
Paul Giamatti (Cinderella Man)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Brokeback Mountain, as Gay Cowboy #1)
William Hurt (A History of Violence)
Everyone is betting on Clooney for this one, because Clooney has had a hand in two of the most prestigious movies of the year and this is the Academy’s chance to celebrate him. But since they’re going to give him the award for original screenplay, they aren’t going to give him this one. So the Oscar will go to Jake Gyllenhaal. Why? Because “Brokeback” is this year’s “Titanic”, the Academy is going to give it as many awards as it can without making this boring. (If they decide to go boring, then forget what I’m saying everywhere else: if “Brokeback” starts winning the little awards, then sneak out of the Oscar party and change your ballot, because “Brokeback” will win absolutely EVERYthing, just like “Return of the King” did on the year when I got bored senseless and really hit the bottle.)
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams (Junebug)
Catherine Keener (Capote)
Frances McDormand (North Country)
Rachel Weisz (The Constant Gardener)
Michelle Williams (Brokeback Mountain)
This is about the tightest race in the Oscars. It’s a dead heat between all five of these ladies, but I think the gold will go to Weisz, and it deserves to. She’s a great actress who deserves to get some recognition. She’s spent years lending class and sex appeal to popcorn flicks like “The Mummy” and “Constantine”, and with “The Constant Gardener” she finally gets to show what she can do when given a truly meaty role in a truly great movie. Simply put, she’s extraordinary. Even though she’s dead for most of the movie, she gives it a sense of energy and a sense of tragedy. She single-handedly elevates the entire movie to a higher level, despite her limited amount of screen time. She literally haunts every frame. That’s an achievement even the Academy can’t ignore.
Best Actress
Judi Dench (Mrs. Henderson Presents)
Felicity Huffman (Transamerica)
Keira Knightley (Pride and Prejudice)
Charlize Theron (North Country)
Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line)
Judi is too old (and she already has an Oscar). Keira is too young (she’s got plenty of time to woo the Academy again). Charlize already has one. So that leaves Reese and Felicity. Tough call here. Reese is blonde (which the Academy tends to reward), she’s good even when she’s in crap (“Walk the Line” is about the best thing she’s ever done), and she’s playing a real person. All of these are brownie points. But Felicity Huffman has won just about every award they give out this year, so she might pull an upset. I think Reese is going to get it (the Academy is nothing if not dependable) but I wouldn’t be too surprised if Felicity Huffman continues her sensational winning streak. (If Felicity wins it, she will thank hubby William H. Macy in her acceptance speech, thereby causing them to pan the camera toward him, and that’s almost cool enough to make me root for her.)
Best Actor
Phillip Seymour Hoffman (Capote)
Terrence Howard (Hustle and Flow)
Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain, as Gay Cowboy #2)
Joaquin Phoenix (Walk the Line)
David Straithairn (Good Night and Good Luck)
I would love to see Joaquin or David win this. Both of them were amazing in their respective roles. I like Heath, and I’m sure that he’s great in “Brokeback” (hell, I loved him in “A Knight’s Tale”), and he’s my second choice to win this. But the Oscar may as well have Hoffman’s name engraved on it already. He’s playing a real guy (again, the Academy thinks this is simply amazing) and, as I’ve already mentioned, the Academy likes to give consolation Oscars to movies that aren’t going to win anything else. “Capote” is a decent movie that got elevated to “great” status simply due to Hoffman’s performance. Without his performance, this movie would have been shown on HBO. With his performance, it gets enough fanfare that it’s nominated for Best Picture. Therefore, Hoffman’s a lock. And good for him, he’s great in everything he’s ever been in (well, maybe not “Twister”). The Academy loves it when an actor perfectly emulates a dead person (see Jamie Foxx in “Ray”). I, on the other hand, think creating a person simply from fiction and making them live and breathe is an amazing achievement. But, again, I am not deciding who gets nominated. If I were, Kevin Costner’s fine performance in “The Upside of Anger” and Jet Li’s stunning work in “Unleashed” would be mentioned here (and no, I am not kidding about Jet Li…he’s that damned good in “Unleashed”).
Best Director
George Clooney (Good Night, and Good Luck)
Paul Haggis (Crash)
Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain)
Bennett Miller (Capote)
Steverino Spielberg (Munich)
The Academy can’t ignore Steve’s stunning achievement all night, and that is why he’s going to get Best Director yet again for “Munich”. Though, it’s going to be a bittersweet affair, because “Munich” isn’t going to get Best Picture. Sorry, Steve. You’ll get the consolation prize here, just like you did for “Saving Private Ryan” and you deserve every ounce of that gold. “Munich” is perhaps the best thriller ever made, skillfully done in every conceivable way and the most challenging film of the year. Steve deserves to win, the Academy knows it, and it’ll be their way of placating him for making them all so nervous with this film.
Best Picture
“Brokeback Mountain”
“Capote”
”Crash”
“Good Night, and Good Luck”
“Munich”
“Brokeback Mountain” has this award in the bag. I haven’t seen it, but anyone who even sporadically checks the internet can see the impact it has had on our entire culture. The gay community finally has its epic, the film that speaks for itself with eloquence and grace (I can tell that much simply from the trailers). It’s not just a movie; it’s a cultural phenomenon, just like “Forrest Gump”, “Titanic” and “American Beauty” before it. It’s a film that stirs up debate and (again, I haven’t seen it, but I’m assuming) puts a human face on a controversial subject. Plus, it doesn’t seem to be rubbing people the wrong way as “Munich” is doing. “Brokeback Mountain” is a film about homosexuality you can take your grandparents to and, since the Academy is primarily composed of grandparents, “Brokeback Mountain” WILL take home the Oscar.
That’s my one prediction you actually CAN bet on.
